Crypto Intelligence. Straight to the Point.
The market at a glance.
Live prices, the Bitcoin cycle report and the headlines that matter, in one place.
Latest updates
Fresh from the channel.
Market alerts
What moved in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin, live.
Technical signals
Where is Bitcoin in the cycle?
Our read
Four methods, one time window
Most likely day
Uncertainty of the method
Time window
The last cycles, measured the same way
From all-time high to cycle low, and from halving to cycle low. The 2013/15 cycle is left out because exchange prices were too fragmented back then to compare single days cleanly.
Probabilities
Two kinds of numbers, shown side by side and never mixed: what prediction markets price, and what named analysts say.
Prediction-market price ranges
Analyst views
Prediction-market prices show what traders bet, not what analysts forecast. Analyst views are the opinions of the people named, may be outdated and are shown without endorsement. Nothing here is investment advice.
Methodology and limits
Cycle data comes from daily prices by Alpha Vantage. The all-time high is the highest daily high of a cycle, the cycle low the lowest daily low before the next rally. Every day count on this page is calculated from those dates when the page loads. Between two issues, the Bitcoin price in the report is refreshed automatically from Kraken, and a new cycle low is taken over from Kraken’s daily prices once it undercuts the published one by more than 1%.
With only two comparable cycles, the time models are patterns from the past, not laws. The report makes time windows visible. It does not predict a price and it is not investment advice.
The text under “Our read” is generated from the numbers and contains no opinion. Opinions appear only under analyst views, with the analyst named.
Macro
Rates, currencies and the calendar.
Markets overview
Economic calendar
Equities
Stock markets in view.
S&P 500
Indices
Gold & Silver
Precious metals.
Gold
Silver
Learn
Explained simply.
- All-time high
- The highest price an asset has ever reached.
- Halving
- Roughly every four years the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half. The latest halving was on 20 April 2024.
- Cycle low
- The lowest point between one market peak and the next rally. It is only known in hindsight.
- Drop (drawdown)
- The fall from a peak to a later low, in percent. A move from 100 to 40 is a drop of 60%.
- RSI (14)
- The Relative Strength Index measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 are often called overbought, below 30 oversold.
- Cycle-day model
- Counts the days between earlier cycle lows and applies the same spacing to today to estimate when the next low could come.
- Time window
- The range between the earliest and the latest most likely day of the different methods.
- Prediction market
- A market where people trade on outcomes. Prices can be read as the crowd's probabilities. They are not analyst forecasts.
- Auto-alert
- A card created automatically when a market moves beyond a set threshold within 24 hours: Bitcoin 6%, gold 2%, silver 4%. Stock indices (2%) are measured from the previous close. A new Bitcoin cycle low or all-time high creates a card too. Cards stay for 24 hours.